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Model estimates vs. reality: COVID-19 related IC admissions in The Netherlands




Reality (LCPS) defeated the model (RIVM) big time for the prediction made on Dec. 21, 2021, probably because the RIVM did account for higher Omicron transmissibility but not for lower virulence.

21dec21


For this graph, data collected earlier (see here, in Dutch) was used. Curve fitting was done with #JuliaLang's CurveFit.jl.

For a total of six scenarios (RIVM predictions of Intensive Care (IC) daily admissions) data was collected. Graphs for all scenarios is shown below.

Six predictions vs. outcomes.


The sources (incl. Julia code and plots) are available: rivm_estimates_vs_reality.zip
Excerpt: Model-based overestimation of IC admissions in Holland, made by RIVM (21dec21).
Post date: 2022-02-10 01:32:36
Post date GMT: 2022-02-10 00:32:36
Post modified date: 2022-02-10 01:32:36
Post modified date GMT: 2022-02-10 00:32:36
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