Reality (LCPS) defeated the model (RIVM) big time for the prediction made on Dec. 21, 2021, probably because the RIVM did account for higher Omicron transmissibility but not for lower virulence.
For this graph, data collected earlier (see here, in Dutch) was used. Curve fitting was done with #JuliaLang’s CurveFit.jl.
For a total of six scenarios (RIVM predictions of Intensive Care (IC) daily admissions) data was collected. Graphs for all scenarios is shown below.
The sources (incl. Julia code and plots) are available: rivm_estimates_vs_reality.zip
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[…] ook gezien de kaders, maar dit thema zal zeker nog aandacht vragen. Van toeslagenaffaires en foute RIVM voorspellingen tot stikstofellende; modellen blijven als illusoire “niet-politieke, niet-ideologische, […]